Al Hikma 0–2 Tripoli SC: Result & Stats

Al Hikma

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Tripoli SC

2/3/2024

Premier League · Relegation Round - 1Al Safa SC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Al Hikma35%

×Draw28%

Tripoli SC37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al HikmaExpected goals in this matchTripoli SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.17

Al Hikma

1.13

Tripoli SC

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 36 away

1.11

creates per match

0.92

1.42

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Al Hikma

1.11

Tripoli SC

0.92

allows per match

Al Hikma

1.42

Tripoli SC

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Hikma+0.00on par

Tripoli SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hikma ↓

Tripoli SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Al Hikma or draw

63%

Al Hikma or Tripoli SC

72%

Draw or Tripoli SC

65%

Winning margin

Al Hikma wins by 2+

14%

Tripoli SC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Al Hikma 1+ goals

68%

Al Hikma 2+ goals

31%

Al Hikma 3+ goals

11%

Tripoli SC 1+ goals

69%

Tripoli SC 2+ goals

33%

Tripoli SC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Al Hikma (draw refunded)

49%

Tripoli SC (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hikma at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.42 · 57 matches

Tripoli SC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hikma attack 1.11 + Tripoli SC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Tripoli SC attack 0.92 + Al Hikma defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Hikma scores more

35%

level

28%

Tripoli SC scores more

37%

Tripoli SC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tripoli SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff