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Al-Hidd vs Manama — Premier League 2019

Al-Hidd
Al-Hidd
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Manama
Manama
12/24/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Stād al-Bahrayn al-Watanī

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Al-Hidd37%
×Draw26%
Manama37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Hidd
1.37
Manama
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 62 away

creates per match

Al-Hidd
1.43
Manama
1.32

allows per match

Al-Hidd
1.40
Manama
1.31

finishing

Al-Hidd+0.00on par
Manama+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hidd ↓

Manama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al-Hidd or draw
63%
Al-Hidd or Manama
74%
Draw or Manama
63%

Winning margin

Al-Hidd wins by 2+
17%
Manama wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Al-Hidd 1+ goals
75%
Al-Hidd 2+ goals
40%
Al-Hidd 3+ goals
16%
Manama 1+ goals
74%
Manama 2+ goals
39%
Manama 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Al-Hidd (draw refunded)
50%
Manama (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hidd at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.40 · 63 matches

Manama away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.31 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hidd attack 1.43 + Manama defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.37

Manama attack 1.32 + Al-Hidd defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al-Hidd scores more
37%
level
26%
Manama scores more
37%

Al-Hidd at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al-Hidd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al-Hidd 0 – 2 Manama

Manama beat Al-Hidd 2-0 in Premier League on December 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stād al-Bahrayn al-Watanī in Riffa.