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Al-Hidd vs East Riffa — Premier League 2019

Al-Hidd
Al-Hidd
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
East Riffa
East Riffa
4/15/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Al-Hidd36%
×Draw27%
East Riffa36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Hidd
1.25
East Riffa
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 61 away

creates per match

Al-Hidd
1.43
East Riffa
1.10

allows per match

Al-Hidd
1.40
East Riffa
1.07

finishing

Al-Hidd+0.00on par
East Riffa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hidd ↓

East Riffa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al-Hidd or draw
64%
Al-Hidd or East Riffa
73%
Draw or East Riffa
64%

Winning margin

Al-Hidd wins by 2+
16%
East Riffa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al-Hidd 1+ goals
71%
Al-Hidd 2+ goals
36%
Al-Hidd 3+ goals
13%
East Riffa 1+ goals
71%
East Riffa 2+ goals
36%
East Riffa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al-Hidd (draw refunded)
50%
East Riffa (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hidd at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.40 · 63 matches

East Riffa away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hidd attack 1.43 + East Riffa defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

East Riffa attack 1.10 + Al-Hidd defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al-Hidd scores more
36%
level
27%
East Riffa scores more
36%

Al-Hidd at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al-Hidd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al-Hidd 1–1 East Riffa

Al-Hidd and East Riffa drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 15, 2024.

The match was played at Sheikh Ali bin Mohammed Al Khalifa Stadium in Muharraq.