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Al-Hazm vs Arar — Division 1 2018

Al-Hazm
Al-Hazm
FT
2 – 0
Arar
Arar
10/20/2020Division 1Division 1 · Round 1Ar-Rass Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al-Hazm66%
×Draw22%
Arar12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Hazm
1.81
Arar
0.61

Al-Hazm creates 197% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 19 away

creates per match

Al-Hazm
1.89
Arar
0.47

allows per match

Al-Hazm
0.75
Arar
1.74

finishing

Al-Hazm+0.00on par
Arar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hazm ↓

Arar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al-Hazm or draw
88%
Al-Hazm or Arar
78%
Draw or Arar
34%

Winning margin

Al-Hazm wins by 2+
39%
Arar wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Al-Hazm 1+ goals
84%
Al-Hazm 2+ goals
54%
Al-Hazm 3+ goals
27%
Arar 1+ goals
46%
Arar 2+ goals
13%
Arar 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Al-Hazm (draw refunded)
85%
Arar (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hazm at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.75 · 55 matches

Arar away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hazm attack 1.89 + Arar defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.81

Arar attack 0.47 + Al-Hazm defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Al-Hazm scores more
66%
level
22%
Arar scores more
12%

Al-Hazm at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Al-Hazm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al-Hazm 2–0 Arar

Al-Hazm beat Arar 2-0 in Division 1 on October 20, 2020.

The match was played at Ar-Rass Stadium in Rass.