Al-Hazm 2–0 Al-Kawkab: Result & Stats | Division 1

Al-Hazm

FT

2 – 0

Al-Kawkab

12/4/2020

Division 1 · Round 8Ar-Rass Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Al-Hazm56%

×Draw25%

Al-Kawkab19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-HazmExpected goals in this matchAl-Kawkab

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.82

Al-Hazm

1.60

Al-Kawkab

0.82

Al-Hazm creates 95% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 60 away

1.89

creates per match

0.90

0.75

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Al-Hazm

1.89

Al-Kawkab

0.90

allows per match

Al-Hazm

0.75

Al-Kawkab

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Hazm+0.00on par

Al-Kawkab+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hazm ↓

Al-Kawkab →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Al-Hazm or draw

81%

Al-Hazm or Al-Kawkab

75%

Draw or Al-Kawkab

44%

Winning margin

Al-Hazm wins by 2+

30%

Al-Kawkab wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Al-Hazm 1+ goals

80%

Al-Hazm 2+ goals

47%

Al-Hazm 3+ goals

22%

Al-Kawkab 1+ goals

56%

Al-Kawkab 2+ goals

20%

Al-Kawkab 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al-Hazm (draw refunded)

74%

Al-Kawkab (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hazm at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.75 · 55 matches

Al-Kawkab away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.32 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hazm attack 1.89 + Al-Kawkab defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.60

Al-Kawkab attack 0.90 + Al-Hazm defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Al-Hazm scores more

56%

level

25%

Al-Kawkab scores more

19%

Al-Hazm at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Al-Hazm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff