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Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah — Division 1 2018

Al-Hazm
Al-Hazm
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah
5/29/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 34Ar-Rass Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al-Hazm40%
×Draw29%
Al-Ahli Jeddah31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Hazm
1.21
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.02

Al-Hazm creates 19% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 17 away

creates per match

Al-Hazm
1.89
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.29

allows per match

Al-Hazm
0.75
Al-Ahli Jeddah
0.53

finishing

Al-Hazm+0.00on par
Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Hazm ↓

Al-Ahli Jeddah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al-Hazm or draw
69%
Al-Hazm or Al-Ahli Jeddah
71%
Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah
60%

Winning margin

Al-Hazm wins by 2+
17%
Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al-Hazm 1+ goals
70%
Al-Hazm 2+ goals
34%
Al-Hazm 3+ goals
12%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals
64%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals
27%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al-Hazm (draw refunded)
57%
Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Hazm at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.75 · 55 matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Hazm attack 1.89 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.21

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.29 + Al-Hazm defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al-Hazm scores more
40%
level
29%
Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more
31%

Al-Hazm at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al-Hazm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Hazm vs Al-Ahli Jeddah

Al-Hazm and Al-Ahli Jeddah drew 0-0 in Division 1 on May 29, 2023.

The match was played at Ar-Rass Stadium in Rass.