Al Hamriyah 1–0 Masafi: Result & Stats | Division 1

Al Hamriyah

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Masafi

K. Mardek 90+2'

1/26/2023

Division 1 · Round 19Al-Hamriya Sports Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Hamriyah43%

×Draw25%

Masafi33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al HamriyahExpected goals in this matchMasafi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.33

Al Hamriyah

1.55

Masafi

1.33

Al Hamriyah creates 17% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 34 away

1.42

creates per match

1.24

1.42

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Al Hamriyah

1.42

Masafi

1.24

allows per match

Al Hamriyah

1.42

Masafi

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Hamriyah+0.00on par

Masafi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hamriyah ↓

Masafi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Al Hamriyah or draw

67%

Al Hamriyah or Masafi

75%

Draw or Masafi

57%

Winning margin

Al Hamriyah wins by 2+

21%

Masafi wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Al Hamriyah 1+ goals

79%

Al Hamriyah 2+ goals

46%

Al Hamriyah 3+ goals

20%

Masafi 1+ goals

74%

Masafi 2+ goals

38%

Masafi 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Al Hamriyah (draw refunded)

57%

Masafi (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hamriyah at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Masafi away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hamriyah attack 1.42 + Masafi defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.55

Masafi attack 1.24 + Al Hamriyah defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Hamriyah scores more

43%

level

25%

Masafi scores more

33%

Al Hamriyah at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Hamriyah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+2'

K. Mardek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff