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Al Hamriyah vs Gulf United — Division 1 2018

Al Hamriyah
Al Hamriyah
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Gulf United
Gulf United
9/19/2025Division 1Division 1 · Round 1Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Al Hamriyah51%
×Draw24%
Gulf United26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hamriyah
1.73
Gulf United
1.16

Al Hamriyah creates 49% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 43 away

creates per match

Al Hamriyah
1.58
Gulf United
0.93

allows per match

Al Hamriyah
1.39
Gulf United
1.88

finishing

Al Hamriyah+0.00on par
Gulf United+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hamriyah ↓

Gulf United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al Hamriyah or draw
74%
Al Hamriyah or Gulf United
76%
Draw or Gulf United
49%

Winning margin

Al Hamriyah wins by 2+
27%
Gulf United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Hamriyah 1+ goals
82%
Al Hamriyah 2+ goals
52%
Al Hamriyah 3+ goals
25%
Gulf United 1+ goals
69%
Gulf United 2+ goals
32%
Gulf United 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Hamriyah (draw refunded)
66%
Gulf United (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hamriyah at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.39 · 100 matches

Gulf United away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.88 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hamriyah attack 1.58 + Gulf United defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.73

Gulf United attack 0.93 + Al Hamriyah defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Al Hamriyah scores more
51%
level
24%
Gulf United scores more
26%

Al Hamriyah at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al Hamriyah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hamriyah vs Gulf United

Al Hamriyah beat Gulf United 4-2 in Division 1 on September 19, 2025.

The match was played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium in Al Sharjah (Sharjah).