Al Hamriyah 3–0 Baynounah SC: Result & Stats

Al Hamriyah

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Baynounah SC

12/31/2022

Division 1 · Round 15Al-Hamriya Sports Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Al Hamriyah63%

×Draw20%

Baynounah SC17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al HamriyahExpected goals in this matchBaynounah SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.04

Al Hamriyah

2.17

Baynounah SC

1.04

Al Hamriyah creates 109% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 16 away

1.58

creates per match

0.69

1.39

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Al Hamriyah

1.58

Baynounah SC

0.69

allows per match

Al Hamriyah

1.39

Baynounah SC

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Hamriyah+0.00on par

Baynounah SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hamriyah ↓

Baynounah SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Al Hamriyah or draw

83%

Al Hamriyah or Baynounah SC

80%

Draw or Baynounah SC

37%

Winning margin

Al Hamriyah wins by 2+

40%

Baynounah SC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Al Hamriyah 1+ goals

89%

Al Hamriyah 2+ goals

64%

Al Hamriyah 3+ goals

36%

Baynounah SC 1+ goals

65%

Baynounah SC 2+ goals

28%

Baynounah SC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Al Hamriyah (draw refunded)

78%

Baynounah SC (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hamriyah at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.39 · 100 matches

Baynounah SC away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hamriyah attack 1.58 + Baynounah SC defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.17

Baynounah SC attack 0.69 + Al Hamriyah defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Al Hamriyah scores more

63%

level

20%

Baynounah SC scores more

17%

Al Hamriyah at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Al Hamriyah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff