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Al Hamriyah vs Al Thaid — Division 1 2018

Al Hamriyah
Al Hamriyah
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al Thaid
Al Thaid
4/5/2026Division 1Division 1 · Round 22Al-Hamriya Sports Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Al Hamriyah44%
×Draw25%
Al Thaid31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hamriyah
1.54
Al Thaid
1.25

Al Hamriyah creates 23% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 100 away

creates per match

Al Hamriyah
1.58
Al Thaid
1.10

allows per match

Al Hamriyah
1.39
Al Thaid
1.51

finishing

Al Hamriyah+0.00on par
Al Thaid+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hamriyah ↓

Al Thaid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Al Hamriyah or draw
69%
Al Hamriyah or Al Thaid
75%
Draw or Al Thaid
56%

Winning margin

Al Hamriyah wins by 2+
22%
Al Thaid wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Hamriyah 1+ goals
79%
Al Hamriyah 2+ goals
45%
Al Hamriyah 3+ goals
20%
Al Thaid 1+ goals
71%
Al Thaid 2+ goals
36%
Al Thaid 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al Hamriyah (draw refunded)
59%
Al Thaid (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hamriyah at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.39 · 100 matches

Al Thaid away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hamriyah attack 1.58 + Al Thaid defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.54

Al Thaid attack 1.10 + Al Hamriyah defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Hamriyah scores more
44%
level
25%
Al Thaid scores more
31%

Al Hamriyah at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Hamriyah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hamriyah vs Al Thaid

Al Hamriyah and Al Thaid drew 1-1 in Division 1 on April 5, 2026.

The match was played at Al-Hamriya Sports Club Stadium in Sharjah, Ajman.