Al Hamriyah 0–1 Al Jazira Al Hamra: Result & Stats

Al Hamriyah

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al Jazira Al Hamra

12/20/2025

Division 1 · Round 10Al-Hamriya Sports Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Al Hamriyah48%

×Draw23%

Al Jazira Al Hamra29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al HamriyahExpected goals in this matchAl Jazira Al Hamra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.35

Al Hamriyah

1.81

Al Jazira Al Hamra

1.35

Al Hamriyah creates 34% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 73 away

1.58

creates per match

1.32

1.39

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Al Hamriyah

1.58

Al Jazira Al Hamra

1.32

allows per match

Al Hamriyah

1.39

Al Jazira Al Hamra

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Hamriyah+0.00on par

Al Jazira Al Hamra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hamriyah ↓

Al Jazira Al Hamra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Al Hamriyah or draw

71%

Al Hamriyah or Al Jazira Al Hamra

77%

Draw or Al Jazira Al Hamra

52%

Winning margin

Al Hamriyah wins by 2+

26%

Al Jazira Al Hamra wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al Hamriyah 1+ goals

84%

Al Hamriyah 2+ goals

54%

Al Hamriyah 3+ goals

27%

Al Jazira Al Hamra 1+ goals

74%

Al Jazira Al Hamra 2+ goals

39%

Al Jazira Al Hamra 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Al Hamriyah (draw refunded)

63%

Al Jazira Al Hamra (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hamriyah at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.39 · 100 matches

Al Jazira Al Hamra away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.04 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hamriyah attack 1.58 + Al Jazira Al Hamra defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.81

Al Jazira Al Hamra attack 1.32 + Al Hamriyah defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al Hamriyah scores more

48%

level

23%

Al Jazira Al Hamra scores more

29%

Al Hamriyah at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Hamriyah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff