Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Hamriyah vs Al Fujairah SC — Presidents Cup 2019

Al Hamriyah
Al Hamriyah
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Fujairah SC
Al Fujairah SC
9/27/2024Presidents CupPresidents Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundAl-Hamriya Sports Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al Hamriyah56%
×Draw23%
Al Fujairah SC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hamriyah
1.85
Al Fujairah SC
1.06

Al Hamriyah creates 75% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Al Hamriyah
1.36
Al Fujairah SC
0.67

allows per match

Al Hamriyah
1.45
Al Fujairah SC
2.33

finishing

Al Hamriyah+0.00on par
Al Fujairah SC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hamriyah ↓

Al Fujairah SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al Hamriyah or draw
78%
Al Hamriyah or Al Fujairah SC
77%
Draw or Al Fujairah SC
44%

Winning margin

Al Hamriyah wins by 2+
32%
Al Fujairah SC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Hamriyah 1+ goals
84%
Al Hamriyah 2+ goals
55%
Al Hamriyah 3+ goals
28%
Al Fujairah SC 1+ goals
65%
Al Fujairah SC 2+ goals
29%
Al Fujairah SC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al Hamriyah (draw refunded)
72%
Al Fujairah SC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hamriyah at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Al Fujairah SC away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hamriyah attack 1.36 + Al Fujairah SC defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.85

Al Fujairah SC attack 0.67 + Al Hamriyah defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Al Hamriyah scores more
56%
level
23%
Al Fujairah SC scores more
22%

Al Hamriyah at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Al Hamriyah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hamriyah vs Al Fujairah SC

Al Hamriyah beat Al Fujairah SC 2-0 in Presidents Cup on September 27, 2024.

The match was played at Al-Hamriya Sports Club Stadium in Sharjah, Ajman.