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Al Hala vs Sitra — Premier League 2019

Al Hala
Al Hala
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sitra
Sitra
5/9/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Madinat 'Isa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Al Hala29%
×Draw26%
Sitra45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hala
1.15
Sitra
1.48

Sitra creates 29% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 44 away

creates per match

Al Hala
0.95
Sitra
1.45

allows per match

Al Hala
1.52
Sitra
1.34

finishing

Al Hala+0.00on par
Sitra+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hala ↓

Sitra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al Hala or draw
55%
Al Hala or Sitra
74%
Draw or Sitra
71%

Winning margin

Al Hala wins by 2+
12%
Sitra wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Al Hala 1+ goals
68%
Al Hala 2+ goals
32%
Al Hala 3+ goals
11%
Sitra 1+ goals
77%
Sitra 2+ goals
43%
Sitra 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Al Hala (draw refunded)
40%
Sitra (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hala at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

Sitra away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hala attack 0.95 + Sitra defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.15

Sitra attack 1.45 + Al Hala defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Hala scores more
29%
level
26%
Sitra scores more
45%

Sitra at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Hala vs Sitra

Sitra beat Al Hala 2-1 in Premier League on May 9, 2024.

The match was played at Madinat 'Isa Stadium in Manama.