Al Hala 2–1 Budaiya: Result & Stats

Al Hala

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Budaiya

9/17/2021

Premier League · Round 3Madinat 'Isa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Al Hala40%

×Draw26%

Budaiya33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al HalaExpected goals in this matchBudaiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.22

Al Hala

1.37

Budaiya

1.22

Al Hala creates 12% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 43 away

0.95

creates per match

0.91

1.52

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Al Hala

0.95

Budaiya

0.91

allows per match

Al Hala

1.52

Budaiya

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Hala+0.00on par

Budaiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hala ↓

Budaiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Al Hala or draw

67%

Al Hala or Budaiya

74%

Draw or Budaiya

60%

Winning margin

Al Hala wins by 2+

19%

Budaiya wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Al Hala 1+ goals

75%

Al Hala 2+ goals

40%

Al Hala 3+ goals

16%

Budaiya 1+ goals

70%

Budaiya 2+ goals

34%

Budaiya 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Al Hala (draw refunded)

55%

Budaiya (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hala at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

Budaiya away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.79 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hala attack 0.95 + Budaiya defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.37

Budaiya attack 0.91 + Al Hala defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Hala scores more

40%

level

26%

Budaiya scores more

33%

Al Hala at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Hala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff