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Al Hala vs Bahrain SC — Premier League 2019

Al Hala
Al Hala
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bahrain SC
Bahrain SC
1/27/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Al-Ahli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Al Hala46%
×Draw25%
Bahrain SC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Hala
1.53
Bahrain SC
1.16

Al Hala creates 32% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 35 away

creates per match

Al Hala
0.95
Bahrain SC
0.80

allows per match

Al Hala
1.52
Bahrain SC
2.11

finishing

Al Hala+0.00on par
Bahrain SC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hala ↓

Bahrain SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Al Hala or draw
71%
Al Hala or Bahrain SC
75%
Draw or Bahrain SC
54%

Winning margin

Al Hala wins by 2+
23%
Bahrain SC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al Hala 1+ goals
78%
Al Hala 2+ goals
45%
Al Hala 3+ goals
20%
Bahrain SC 1+ goals
69%
Bahrain SC 2+ goals
32%
Bahrain SC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Hala (draw refunded)
61%
Bahrain SC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hala at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

Bahrain SC away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hala attack 0.95 + Bahrain SC defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.53

Bahrain SC attack 0.80 + Al Hala defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Hala scores more
46%
level
25%
Bahrain SC scores more
29%

Al Hala at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Hala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Hala 1–0 Bahrain SC

Al Hala beat Bahrain SC 1-0 in Premier League on January 27, 2023.

The match was played at Al-Ahli Stadium in Manama.