Al-Gharafa 0–2 Tractor Sazi: Result & Stats

Al-Gharafa

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Tractor Sazi

A. Hosseinzadeh 81'

M. Hashemnejad 61'

2/17/2026

AFC Champions League · League Phase West - 8Thani bin Jassim Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al-Gharafa34%

×Draw28%

Tractor Sazi39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-GharafaExpected goals in this matchTractor Sazi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.25

Al-Gharafa

1.15

Tractor Sazi

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

1.39

creates per match

1.27

1.22

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Al-Gharafa

1.39

Tractor Sazi

1.27

allows per match

Al-Gharafa

1.22

Tractor Sazi

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Gharafa+0.00on par

Tractor Sazi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Gharafa ↓

Tractor Sazi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Al-Gharafa or draw

61%

Al-Gharafa or Tractor Sazi

72%

Draw or Tractor Sazi

66%

Winning margin

Al-Gharafa wins by 2+

14%

Tractor Sazi wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Al-Gharafa 1+ goals

68%

Al-Gharafa 2+ goals

32%

Al-Gharafa 3+ goals

11%

Tractor Sazi 1+ goals

71%

Tractor Sazi 2+ goals

36%

Tractor Sazi 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Al-Gharafa (draw refunded)

47%

Tractor Sazi (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Gharafa at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Tractor Sazi away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Gharafa attack 1.39 + Tractor Sazi defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.15

Tractor Sazi attack 1.27 + Al-Gharafa defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al-Gharafa scores more

34%

level

28%

Tractor Sazi scores more

39%

Tractor Sazi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tractor Sazi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42

S. Sano

Al-Gharafa · D

7.9

Match Events

29'

Aleksandar Sedlar

46'

Shoja Khalilzadeh

46'

A. Gunnarsson← M. Normann

60'

Seydou Sano

61'

M. Hashemnejad

67'

Joselu

67'

R. Boussafi← A. Djalo

68'

J. Hamed← F. Diaz

69'

M. Hosseini← T. Halilovic

69'

M. Kazemayni← R. Lushkja

73'

S. Fadlalla← R. A. Al-Ali

74'

Odildzhon Khamrobekov

76'

Aron Gunnarsson

81'

A. Hosseinzadeh↳ M. Kazemayni

83'

Y. M. Al Khlif← F. Coman

86'

F. Faraji← A. Sedlar

90'

Domagoj Drožđek

90'

T. Strkalj← M. Hashemnejad

90'

M. Mohammadi← D. Drozdek

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-GharafaTractor

Overview

41%Possession59%

11Total Shots18

0.59Expected Goals (xG)2.09

4Corners5

7Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots18

4On Target4

3Off Target8

4Blocked6

5Inside Box12

6Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

369Total Passes547

304Accurate Passes475

82%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

0.69Goals Prevented0.69

Discipline

7Fouls9

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3