Al-Gharafa 2–1 Pakhtakor: Result & Stats

Al-Gharafa

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Pakhtakor

Diogo Amado 28'

W. Sneijder 21' (pen)

J. Khakimov 90+3'

1/30/2018

AFC Champions League · Play-offsAl Gharafa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Al-Gharafa45%

×Draw27%

Pakhtakor27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-GharafaExpected goals in this matchPakhtakor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.00

Al-Gharafa

1.37

Pakhtakor

1.00

Al-Gharafa creates 37% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 23 away

1.39

creates per match

0.78

1.22

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Al-Gharafa

1.39

Pakhtakor

0.78

allows per match

Al-Gharafa

1.22

Pakhtakor

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Gharafa+0.00on par

Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Gharafa ↓

Pakhtakor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Al-Gharafa or draw

73%

Al-Gharafa or Pakhtakor

73%

Draw or Pakhtakor

55%

Winning margin

Al-Gharafa wins by 2+

21%

Pakhtakor wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al-Gharafa 1+ goals

75%

Al-Gharafa 2+ goals

40%

Al-Gharafa 3+ goals

16%

Pakhtakor 1+ goals

63%

Pakhtakor 2+ goals

26%

Pakhtakor 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al-Gharafa (draw refunded)

62%

Pakhtakor (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Gharafa at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Gharafa attack 1.39 + Pakhtakor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.37

Pakhtakor attack 0.78 + Al-Gharafa defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al-Gharafa scores more

45%

level

27%

Pakhtakor scores more

27%

Al-Gharafa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al-Gharafa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

Diogo Amado

Al-Gharafa · M

7.9

Match Events

11'

Saeed Alhaj← Almahdi Ali

21'

W. SneijderPenalty

22'

Jamshid Iskanderov

28'

Diogo Amado↳ M. Taremi

49'

Mehdi Taremi

62'

D. Yakhshibaev← B. Abdurakhimov

66'

Tamer Jamal← Abdulaziz Hatem

67'

J. Khakimov← A. Akhmedov

68'

Assim Madibo

75'

Jasurbek Khakimov

76'

Khaled Al Zereiqi← Assim Madibo

82'

Qasem Burhan

86'

Saeed Alhaj Essa

90+3'

J. Khakimov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-GharafaPakhtakor

Overview

37%Possession63%

7Total Shots12

4Corners13

16Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots12

2On Target7

4Off Target3

1Blocked2

3Inside Box9

4Outside Box3

Passing

37%Possession63%

318Total Passes512

211Accurate Passes402

66%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls17

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

3Offsides1