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Al-Gharafa vs Al-Nassr — AFC Champions League 2018

Al-Gharafa
Al-Gharafa
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Nassr
Al-Nassr
11/25/2024AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Stage - 5Al Bayt Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Al-Gharafa30%
×Draw27%
Al-Nassr43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Gharafa
1.11
Al-Nassr
1.37

Al-Nassr creates 23% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 23 away

creates per match

Al-Gharafa
1.39
Al-Nassr
1.52

allows per match

Al-Gharafa
1.22
Al-Nassr
0.83

finishing

Al-Gharafa+0.00on par
Al-Nassr+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Gharafa ↓

Al-Nassr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al-Gharafa or draw
57%
Al-Gharafa or Al-Nassr
73%
Draw or Al-Nassr
70%

Winning margin

Al-Gharafa wins by 2+
12%
Al-Nassr wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Al-Gharafa 1+ goals
67%
Al-Gharafa 2+ goals
30%
Al-Gharafa 3+ goals
10%
Al-Nassr 1+ goals
75%
Al-Nassr 2+ goals
40%
Al-Nassr 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Al-Gharafa (draw refunded)
42%
Al-Nassr (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Gharafa at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Al-Nassr away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Gharafa attack 1.39 + Al-Nassr defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.11

Al-Nassr attack 1.52 + Al-Gharafa defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al-Gharafa scores more
30%
level
27%
Al-Nassr scores more
43%

Al-Nassr at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Gharafa vs Al-Nassr

Al-Nassr beat Al-Gharafa 3-1 in AFC Champions League on November 25, 2024.

The match was played at Al Bayt Stadium in Al Khor.