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Al-Gharafa vs Al Ain — AFC Champions League 2018

Al-Gharafa
Al-Gharafa
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Al Ain
Al Ain
Y. Brahimi 76'
S. Sano 72'
Joselu 48', 45+2'
S. Rahimi 66'
K. Romero 56' (pen)
10/1/2024AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Stage - 2Al Bayt Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Al-Gharafa46%
×Draw25%
Al Ain29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Gharafa
1.58
Al Ain
1.22

Al-Gharafa creates 30% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 23 away

creates per match

Al-Gharafa
1.39
Al Ain
1.22

allows per match

Al-Gharafa
1.22
Al Ain
1.78

finishing

Al-Gharafa+0.00on par
Al Ain+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Gharafa ↓

Al Ain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Al-Gharafa or draw
71%
Al-Gharafa or Al Ain
75%
Draw or Al Ain
54%

Winning margin

Al-Gharafa wins by 2+
23%
Al Ain wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Al-Gharafa 1+ goals
79%
Al-Gharafa 2+ goals
47%
Al-Gharafa 3+ goals
21%
Al Ain 1+ goals
70%
Al Ain 2+ goals
34%
Al Ain 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al-Gharafa (draw refunded)
61%
Al Ain (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Gharafa at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Al Ain away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Gharafa attack 1.39 + Al Ain defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.58

Al Ain attack 1.22 + Al-Gharafa defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al-Gharafa scores more
46%
level
25%
Al Ain scores more
29%

Al-Gharafa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al-Gharafa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
JoseluAl-GharafaAl-Gharafa · F
8.9

Match Events

45+2'
Joselu↳ S. Sano
47'
Fábio Cardoso
48'
Joselu↳ S. Sano
52'
Mateo SanabriaPenalty confirmed
54'
Seydou Sano
56'
K. RomeroPenalty
61'
S. Gassama← M. Sanabria
66'
S. Rahimi↳ K. Romero
69'
Joselu
72'
Abdalla Yousif← A. Gunnarsson
72'
Ahmed Al Ganehi← W. Kechrida
72'
S. Sano↳ F. Coman
76'
Y. Brahimi↳ F. Coman
78'
Matías Nani
82'
M. Segovia← A. Traoré
82'
Yahia Nader← Park Yong-Woo
84'
Soufiane Rahimi
87'
Yacine Brahimi
90+10'
Yahia Nader
90+11'
Jamal Hamed← Y. Brahimi
90+3'
Dame Traoré← F. Coman
90'
F. Salomoni← Erik

Possession

36%Al-Gharafa

Shots

13Al-Gharafa

Pass accuracy

47%Al-Gharafa

Statistics

Al-GharafaAl
Overview
36%Possession64%
13Total Shots12
7Corners7
17Fouls15
Shots
13Total Shots12
6On Target5
6Off Target5
1Blocked2
9Inside Box3
4Outside Box9
Passing
36%Possession64%
302Total Passes549
230Accurate Passes475
76%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls15
4Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Al-Gharafa vs Al Ain

Al-Gharafa beat Al Ain 4-2 in AFC Champions League on October 1, 2024.

Goals: Joselu (45+2', 48'), K. Romero (56' pen), S. Rahimi (66'), S. Sano (72'), Y. Brahimi (76').

Al Ain controlled possession (64%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Al Bayt Stadium in Al Khor.