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Al Fujairah SC vs Al-Dhafra — League #301 2026

Al Fujairah SC
Al Fujairah SC
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Al-Dhafra
Al-Dhafra
2/14/2021League #301League #301 · Round 16Fujairah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Al Fujairah SC51%
×Draw22%
Al-Dhafra27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Fujairah SC
1.92
Al-Dhafra
1.33

Al Fujairah SC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

Al Fujairah SC
1.33
Al-Dhafra
0.67

allows per match

Al Fujairah SC
2.00
Al-Dhafra
2.50

finishing

Al Fujairah SC+0.00on par
Al-Dhafra+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Fujairah SC ↓

Al-Dhafra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Al Fujairah SC or draw
73%
Al Fujairah SC or Al-Dhafra
78%
Draw or Al-Dhafra
49%

Winning margin

Al Fujairah SC wins by 2+
29%
Al-Dhafra wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Fujairah SC 1+ goals
85%
Al Fujairah SC 2+ goals
57%
Al Fujairah SC 3+ goals
30%
Al-Dhafra 1+ goals
74%
Al-Dhafra 2+ goals
38%
Al-Dhafra 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Fujairah SC (draw refunded)
66%
Al-Dhafra (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Fujairah SC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Al-Dhafra away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Fujairah SC attack 1.33 + Al-Dhafra defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Al-Dhafra attack 0.67 + Al Fujairah SC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Al Fujairah SC scores more
51%
level
22%
Al-Dhafra scores more
27%

Al Fujairah SC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al Fujairah SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Fujairah SC vs Al-Dhafra

Al Fujairah SC beat Al-Dhafra 4-2 in League #301 on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Fujairah Stadium in Dibba Al-Fujairah.