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Al Fujairah SC vs Al Arabi — Division 1 2018

Al Fujairah SC
Al Fujairah SC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Arabi
Al Arabi
4/11/2026Division 1Division 1 · Round 23Fujairah Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Al Fujairah SC41%
×Draw25%
Al Arabi34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Fujairah SC
1.54
Al Arabi
1.38

Al Fujairah SC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 100 away

creates per match

Al Fujairah SC
1.68
Al Arabi
1.50

allows per match

Al Fujairah SC
1.26
Al Arabi
1.40

finishing

Al Fujairah SC+0.00on par
Al Arabi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Fujairah SC ↓

Al Arabi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al Fujairah SC or draw
66%
Al Fujairah SC or Al Arabi
75%
Draw or Al Arabi
59%

Winning margin

Al Fujairah SC wins by 2+
20%
Al Arabi wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al Fujairah SC 1+ goals
79%
Al Fujairah SC 2+ goals
45%
Al Fujairah SC 3+ goals
20%
Al Arabi 1+ goals
75%
Al Arabi 2+ goals
40%
Al Arabi 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Al Fujairah SC (draw refunded)
55%
Al Arabi (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Fujairah SC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.26 · 72 matches

Al Arabi away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.40 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Fujairah SC attack 1.68 + Al Arabi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.54

Al Arabi attack 1.50 + Al Fujairah SC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Fujairah SC scores more
41%
level
25%
Al Arabi scores more
34%

Al Fujairah SC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Fujairah SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Fujairah SC 0–1 Al Arabi

Al Arabi beat Al Fujairah SC 1-0 in Division 1 on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Fujairah Club Stadium in Fujairah.