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Al-Fayha vs Ohod — Division 1 2018

Al-Fayha
Al-Fayha
FT
5 – 2
Ohod
Ohod
3/21/2021Division 1Division 1 · Round 27Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al-Fayha57%
×Draw24%
Ohod19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Fayha
1.71
Ohod
0.86

Al-Fayha creates 99% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 108 away

creates per match

Al-Fayha
2.00
Ohod
1.14

allows per match

Al-Fayha
0.58
Ohod
1.41

finishing

Al-Fayha+0.00on par
Ohod+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Fayha ↓

Ohod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al-Fayha or draw
81%
Al-Fayha or Ohod
76%
Draw or Ohod
43%

Winning margin

Al-Fayha wins by 2+
32%
Ohod wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al-Fayha 1+ goals
82%
Al-Fayha 2+ goals
51%
Al-Fayha 3+ goals
24%
Ohod 1+ goals
58%
Ohod 2+ goals
21%
Ohod 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al-Fayha (draw refunded)
75%
Ohod (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Fayha at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Ohod away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.41 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Fayha attack 2.00 + Ohod defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ohod attack 1.14 + Al-Fayha defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Al-Fayha scores more
57%
level
24%
Ohod scores more
19%

Al-Fayha at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Al-Fayha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Fayha vs Ohod

Al-Fayha beat Ohod 5-2 in Division 1 on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Al Majma'ah.