Al-Fayha 3–2 Al-Thuqbah: Result & Stats

Al-Fayha

FT

3 – 2

Al-Thuqbah

2/26/2021

Division 1 · Round 23Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al-Fayha58%

×Draw24%

Al-Thuqbah18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-FayhaExpected goals in this matchAl-Thuqbah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.85

Al-Fayha

1.71

Al-Thuqbah

0.85

Al-Fayha creates 101% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

2.00

creates per match

1.13

0.58

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Al-Fayha

2.00

Al-Thuqbah

1.13

allows per match

Al-Fayha

0.58

Al-Thuqbah

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Fayha+0.00on par

Al-Thuqbah+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Fayha ↓

Al-Thuqbah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Al-Fayha or draw

82%

Al-Fayha or Al-Thuqbah

76%

Draw or Al-Thuqbah

42%

Winning margin

Al-Fayha wins by 2+

32%

Al-Thuqbah wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Al-Fayha 1+ goals

82%

Al-Fayha 2+ goals

51%

Al-Fayha 3+ goals

24%

Al-Thuqbah 1+ goals

57%

Al-Thuqbah 2+ goals

21%

Al-Thuqbah 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al-Fayha (draw refunded)

76%

Al-Thuqbah (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Fayha at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Al-Thuqbah away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Fayha attack 2.00 + Al-Thuqbah defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.71

Al-Thuqbah attack 1.13 + Al-Fayha defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Al-Fayha scores more

58%

level

24%

Al-Thuqbah scores more

18%

Al-Fayha at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Al-Fayha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff