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Al-Fayha vs Al Najoom — Division 1 2018

Al-Fayha
Al-Fayha
FT
3 – 1
Al Najoom
Al Najoom
10/21/2020Division 1Division 1 · Round 1Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al-Fayha65%
×Draw21%
Al Najoom14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Fayha
1.96
Al Najoom
0.78

Al-Fayha creates 151% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 41 away

creates per match

Al-Fayha
2.00
Al Najoom
0.98

allows per match

Al-Fayha
0.58
Al Najoom
1.93

finishing

Al-Fayha+0.00on par
Al Najoom+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Fayha ↓

Al Najoom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al-Fayha or draw
86%
Al-Fayha or Al Najoom
79%
Draw or Al Najoom
35%

Winning margin

Al-Fayha wins by 2+
40%
Al Najoom wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al-Fayha 1+ goals
86%
Al-Fayha 2+ goals
58%
Al-Fayha 3+ goals
31%
Al Najoom 1+ goals
54%
Al Najoom 2+ goals
18%
Al Najoom 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al-Fayha (draw refunded)
82%
Al Najoom (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Fayha at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Al Najoom away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Fayha attack 2.00 + Al Najoom defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.96

Al Najoom attack 0.98 + Al-Fayha defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Al-Fayha scores more
65%
level
21%
Al Najoom scores more
14%

Al-Fayha at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Al-Fayha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al-Fayha 3 – 1 Al Najoom

Al-Fayha beat Al Najoom 3-1 in Division 1 on October 21, 2020.

The match was played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Al Majma'ah.