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Al-Fayha vs Al-Faisaly FC — Pro League 2018

Al-Fayha
Al-Fayha
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 3
Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Faisaly FC
4/20/2019Pro LeaguePro League · Round 28Prince Salman Bin Abdulaziz Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Al-Fayha40%
×Draw27%
Al-Faisaly FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Fayha
1.34
Al-Faisaly FC
1.18

Al-Fayha creates 14% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 60 away

creates per match

Al-Fayha
1.15
Al-Faisaly FC
1.12

allows per match

Al-Fayha
1.24
Al-Faisaly FC
1.53

finishing

Al-Fayha+0.00on par
Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Fayha ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al-Fayha or draw
67%
Al-Fayha or Al-Faisaly FC
73%
Draw or Al-Faisaly FC
60%

Winning margin

Al-Fayha wins by 2+
19%
Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al-Fayha 1+ goals
74%
Al-Fayha 2+ goals
39%
Al-Fayha 3+ goals
15%
Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals
69%
Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals
33%
Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al-Fayha (draw refunded)
55%
Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Fayha at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.24 · 110 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Fayha attack 1.15 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.34

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.12 + Al-Fayha defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al-Fayha scores more
40%
level
27%
Al-Faisaly FC scores more
33%

Al-Fayha at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al-Fayha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al-Fayha 3 – 4 Al-Faisaly FC

Al-Faisaly FC beat Al-Fayha 4-3 in Pro League on April 20, 2019.

The match was played at Prince Salman Bin Abdulaziz Sport City Stadium in Al Majma'ah.