Al-Fayha 1–0 Al-Adalah: Result & Stats | Division 1

Al-Fayha

FT

1 – 0

Al-Adalah

T. Majrashi 55'

3/17/2021

Division 1 · Round 26Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al-Fayha55%

×Draw25%

Al-Adalah21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-FayhaExpected goals in this matchAl-Adalah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.91

Al-Fayha

1.65

Al-Adalah

0.91

Al-Fayha creates 81% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 94 away

2.00

creates per match

1.24

0.58

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Al-Fayha

2.00

Al-Adalah

1.24

allows per match

Al-Fayha

0.58

Al-Adalah

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Fayha+0.00on par

Al-Adalah+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Fayha ↓

Al-Adalah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Al-Fayha or draw

79%

Al-Fayha or Al-Adalah

75%

Draw or Al-Adalah

45%

Winning margin

Al-Fayha wins by 2+

30%

Al-Adalah wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Al-Fayha 1+ goals

81%

Al-Fayha 2+ goals

49%

Al-Fayha 3+ goals

23%

Al-Adalah 1+ goals

60%

Al-Adalah 2+ goals

23%

Al-Adalah 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Al-Fayha (draw refunded)

73%

Al-Adalah (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Fayha at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Al-Adalah away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.29 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Fayha attack 2.00 + Al-Adalah defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.65

Al-Adalah attack 1.24 + Al-Fayha defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al-Fayha scores more

55%

level

25%

Al-Adalah scores more

21%

Al-Fayha at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al-Fayha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

T. Majrashi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff