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Al-Fayha vs Ahal — AFC Champions League 2018

Al-Fayha
Al-Fayha
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Ahal
Ahal
11/28/2023AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group A - 5Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al-Fayha64%
×Draw20%
Ahal16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Fayha
2.13
Ahal
0.96

Al-Fayha creates 122% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Al-Fayha
1.75
Ahal
0.67

allows per match

Al-Fayha
1.25
Ahal
2.50

finishing

Al-Fayha+0.00on par
Ahal+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Fayha ↓

Ahal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Al-Fayha or draw
84%
Al-Fayha or Ahal
80%
Draw or Ahal
36%

Winning margin

Al-Fayha wins by 2+
40%
Ahal wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al-Fayha 1+ goals
88%
Al-Fayha 2+ goals
63%
Al-Fayha 3+ goals
35%
Ahal 1+ goals
62%
Ahal 2+ goals
25%
Ahal 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al-Fayha (draw refunded)
80%
Ahal (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Fayha at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Ahal away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Fayha attack 1.75 + Ahal defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Ahal attack 0.67 + Al-Fayha defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Al-Fayha scores more
64%
level
20%
Ahal scores more
16%

Al-Fayha at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Al-Fayha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Fayha vs Ahal

Al-Fayha beat Ahal 3-1 in AFC Champions League on November 28, 2023.

The match was played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Riyadh.