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Al-Fayha vs Abha — Pro League 2018

Al-Fayha
Al-Fayha
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Abha
Abha
2/25/2024Pro LeaguePro League · Round 21Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Al-Fayha50%
×Draw24%
Abha26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Fayha
1.67
Abha
1.14

Al-Fayha creates 46% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 77 away

creates per match

Al-Fayha
1.14
Abha
1.05

allows per match

Al-Fayha
1.23
Abha
2.21

finishing

Al-Fayha+0.00on par
Abha+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Fayha ↓

Abha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Al-Fayha or draw
74%
Al-Fayha or Abha
76%
Draw or Abha
50%

Winning margin

Al-Fayha wins by 2+
26%
Abha wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al-Fayha 1+ goals
81%
Al-Fayha 2+ goals
50%
Al-Fayha 3+ goals
23%
Abha 1+ goals
68%
Abha 2+ goals
32%
Abha 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al-Fayha (draw refunded)
66%
Abha (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Fayha at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.23 · 111 matches

Abha away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.21 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Fayha attack 1.14 + Abha defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.67

Abha attack 1.05 + Al-Fayha defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al-Fayha scores more
50%
level
24%
Abha scores more
26%

Al-Fayha at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al-Fayha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Al-Fayha 3–2 Abha

Al-Fayha beat Abha 3-2 in Pro League on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Al Majma'ah.