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Al-Fateh vs Ohod — Pro League 2018

Al-Fateh
Al-Fateh
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ohod
Ohod
11/22/2018Pro LeaguePro League · Round 10Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Al-Fateh61%
×Draw21%
Ohod18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Fateh
2.10
Ohod
1.06

Al-Fateh creates 98% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 15 away

creates per match

Al-Fateh
1.59
Ohod
0.60

allows per match

Al-Fateh
1.52
Ohod
2.60

finishing

Al-Fateh+0.00on par
Ohod+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Fateh ↓

Ohod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Al-Fateh or draw
82%
Al-Fateh or Ohod
79%
Draw or Ohod
39%

Winning margin

Al-Fateh wins by 2+
38%
Ohod wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al-Fateh 1+ goals
88%
Al-Fateh 2+ goals
62%
Al-Fateh 3+ goals
35%
Ohod 1+ goals
65%
Ohod 2+ goals
29%
Ohod 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al-Fateh (draw refunded)
77%
Ohod (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Fateh at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.52 · 126 matches

Ohod away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Fateh attack 1.59 + Ohod defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.10

Ohod attack 0.60 + Al-Fateh defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Al-Fateh scores more
61%
level
21%
Ohod scores more
18%

Al-Fateh at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Al-Fateh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al-Fateh 4 – 0 Ohod

Al-Fateh beat Ohod 4-0 in Pro League on November 22, 2018.

The match was played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium in Al-Hasa.