Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon — Pro League 2018

Al-Fateh
Al-Fateh
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Al Taawon
Al Taawon
11/7/2025Pro LeaguePro League · Round 8Al Fateh club stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Al-Fateh36%
×Draw25%
Al Taawon39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Fateh
1.39
Al Taawon
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 125 home / 126 away

creates per match

Al-Fateh
1.60
Al Taawon
1.35

allows per match

Al-Fateh
1.52
Al Taawon
1.17

finishing

Al-Fateh+0.00on par
Al Taawon+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Fateh ↓

Al Taawon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al-Fateh or draw
61%
Al-Fateh or Al Taawon
75%
Draw or Al Taawon
64%

Winning margin

Al-Fateh wins by 2+
17%
Al Taawon wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Al-Fateh 1+ goals
75%
Al-Fateh 2+ goals
40%
Al-Fateh 3+ goals
16%
Al Taawon 1+ goals
76%
Al Taawon 2+ goals
42%
Al Taawon 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Al-Fateh (draw refunded)
48%
Al Taawon (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Fateh at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.52 · 125 matches

Al Taawon away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.17 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Fateh attack 1.60 + Al Taawon defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Al Taawon attack 1.35 + Al-Fateh defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al-Fateh scores more
36%
level
25%
Al Taawon scores more
39%

Al Taawon at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Taawon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Fateh vs Al Taawon

Al Taawon beat Al-Fateh 5-2 in Pro League on November 7, 2025.

The match was played at Al Fateh club stadium in Al-Hofuf.