Al-Fateh 2–2 Al Riyadh: Result & Stats | Pro League

Al-Fateh

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Al Riyadh

L. Zelarayán 80'

Djaniny 6'

D. Ndong 90+4'

Mohammed Al Shwirekh 90+1'

5/2/2024

Pro League · Round 30Al Fateh Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Al-Fateh49%

×Draw23%

Al Riyadh28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-FatehExpected goals in this matchAl Riyadh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.32

Al-Fateh

1.83

Al Riyadh

1.32

Al-Fateh creates 39% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 51 away

1.60

creates per match

1.12

1.52

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Al-Fateh

1.60

Al Riyadh

1.12

allows per match

Al-Fateh

1.52

Al Riyadh

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Fateh+0.00on par

Al Riyadh+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Fateh ↓

Al Riyadh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Al-Fateh or draw

72%

Al-Fateh or Al Riyadh

77%

Draw or Al Riyadh

51%

Winning margin

Al-Fateh wins by 2+

27%

Al Riyadh wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al-Fateh 1+ goals

84%

Al-Fateh 2+ goals

54%

Al-Fateh 3+ goals

28%

Al Riyadh 1+ goals

73%

Al Riyadh 2+ goals

38%

Al Riyadh 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Al-Fateh (draw refunded)

64%

Al Riyadh (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Fateh at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.52 · 125 matches

Al Riyadh away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Fateh attack 1.60 + Al Riyadh defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.83

Al Riyadh attack 1.12 + Al-Fateh defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Al-Fateh scores more

49%

level

23%

Al Riyadh scores more

28%

Al-Fateh at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al-Fateh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Zelarayán

Al-Fateh · M

8.6

Match Events

6'

Djaniny↳ L. Zelarayán

15'

Othman Al-Othman

46'

Ali Al Zubaidi← Othman Al Othman

54'

Khalid Bin Shuwayyi

54'

Khalid Bin ShuwayyiCard upgrade

57'

Saeed Baattia

64'

Moayad Al Houti← A. Gray

64'

Mohammed Al Aqel← Abdulhadi Al Harajin

71'

Mohammed Al Aqeel← Yahia Al Shehri

77'

Noah Al Mousa← Saeed Baattia

80'

L. Zelarayán↳ S. Bendebka

81'

Fahad Al Rashidi← D. Arslanagić

82'

Saad Al Sharfa← Djaniny

90+3'

Marwane Saadane

90'

Abbas Al Hassan← L. Zelarayán

90+1'

Mohammed Al Shwirekh↳ K. Musona

90+4'

D. Ndong↳ Abdulelah Al Khaibari

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-FatehAl

Overview

68%Possession32%

14Total Shots7

4Corners1

15Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots7

5On Target4

4Off Target3

5Blocked0

7Inside Box3

7Outside Box4

Passing

68%Possession32%

656Total Passes319

594Accurate Passes246

91%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls7

3Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1