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Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC — Pro League 2018

Al-Fateh
Al-Fateh
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Faisaly FC
2/15/2020Pro LeaguePro League · Round 18Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Al-Fateh43%
×Draw25%
Al-Faisaly FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Fateh
1.56
Al-Faisaly FC
1.32

Al-Fateh creates 18% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 60 away

creates per match

Al-Fateh
1.60
Al-Faisaly FC
1.12

allows per match

Al-Fateh
1.52
Al-Faisaly FC
1.53

finishing

Al-Fateh+0.00on par
Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Fateh ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al-Fateh or draw
68%
Al-Fateh or Al-Faisaly FC
75%
Draw or Al-Faisaly FC
57%

Winning margin

Al-Fateh wins by 2+
21%
Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al-Fateh 1+ goals
79%
Al-Fateh 2+ goals
46%
Al-Fateh 3+ goals
21%
Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals
73%
Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals
38%
Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al-Fateh (draw refunded)
57%
Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Fateh at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.52 · 125 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Fateh attack 1.60 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.12 + Al-Fateh defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al-Fateh scores more
43%
level
25%
Al-Faisaly FC scores more
32%

Al-Fateh at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al-Fateh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Fateh vs Al-Faisaly FC

Al-Fateh and Al-Faisaly FC drew 2-2 in Pro League on February 15, 2020.

The match was played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium in Al-Hasa.