Al-Fateh 1–0 Al-Ahli Jeddah: Result & Stats

Al-Fateh

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al-Ahli Jeddah

8/27/2024

Pro League · Round 2Al Fateh Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Al-Fateh36%

×Draw24%

Al-Ahli Jeddah40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-FatehExpected goals in this matchAl-Ahli Jeddah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.58

Al-Fateh

1.50

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 126 home / 111 away

1.59

creates per match

1.65

1.52

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Al-Fateh

1.59

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.65

allows per match

Al-Fateh

1.52

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Fateh+0.00on par

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Fateh ↓

Al-Ahli Jeddah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Al-Fateh or draw

60%

Al-Fateh or Al-Ahli Jeddah

76%

Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah

64%

Winning margin

Al-Fateh wins by 2+

17%

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Al-Fateh 1+ goals

78%

Al-Fateh 2+ goals

44%

Al-Fateh 3+ goals

19%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

79%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

47%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Al-Fateh (draw refunded)

48%

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Fateh at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.52 · 126 matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.41 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Fateh attack 1.59 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.50

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.65 + Al-Fateh defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al-Fateh scores more

36%

level

24%

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

40%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff