Al Fallah 0–1 Wad Nubawi: Result & Stats

Al Fallah

FT

0 – 1

Wad Nubawi

3/21/2023

Sudani Premier League · Round 24Stade Al-Amal Atbara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Al Fallah40%

×Draw31%

Wad Nubawi29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al FallahExpected goals in this matchWad Nubawi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.86

Al Fallah

1.07

Wad Nubawi

0.86

Al Fallah creates 24% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 28 away

1.07

creates per match

0.71

1.02

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Al Fallah

1.07

Wad Nubawi

0.71

allows per match

Al Fallah

1.02

Wad Nubawi

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Fallah+0.00on par

Wad Nubawi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Fallah ↓

Wad Nubawi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Al Fallah or draw

71%

Al Fallah or Wad Nubawi

69%

Draw or Wad Nubawi

60%

Winning margin

Al Fallah wins by 2+

16%

Wad Nubawi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al Fallah 1+ goals

66%

Al Fallah 2+ goals

29%

Al Fallah 3+ goals

9%

Wad Nubawi 1+ goals

58%

Wad Nubawi 2+ goals

21%

Wad Nubawi 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Al Fallah (draw refunded)

58%

Wad Nubawi (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Fallah at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.02 · 41 matches

Wad Nubawi away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Fallah attack 1.07 + Wad Nubawi defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.07

Wad Nubawi attack 0.71 + Al Fallah defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Fallah scores more

40%

level

31%

Wad Nubawi scores more

29%

Al Fallah at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Fallah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff