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Al Fallah vs Tuti — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Fallah
Al Fallah
FT
1 – 2
Tuti
Tuti
12/19/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 15Stade Al-Amal Atbara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Al Fallah41%
×Draw30%
Tuti29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Fallah
1.16
Tuti
0.93

Al Fallah creates 25% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 44 away

creates per match

Al Fallah
1.07
Tuti
0.84

allows per match

Al Fallah
1.02
Tuti
1.25

finishing

Al Fallah+0.00on par
Tuti+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Fallah ↓

Tuti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Fallah or draw
71%
Al Fallah or Tuti
70%
Draw or Tuti
59%

Winning margin

Al Fallah wins by 2+
17%
Tuti wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Fallah 1+ goals
69%
Al Fallah 2+ goals
32%
Al Fallah 3+ goals
11%
Tuti 1+ goals
61%
Tuti 2+ goals
24%
Tuti 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Fallah (draw refunded)
58%
Tuti (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Fallah at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.02 · 41 matches

Tuti away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.25 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Fallah attack 1.07 + Tuti defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Tuti attack 0.84 + Al Fallah defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Fallah scores more
41%
level
30%
Tuti scores more
29%

Al Fallah at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Fallah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Fallah 1 – 2 Tuti

Tuti beat Al Fallah 2-1 in Sudani Premier League on December 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Al-Amal Atbara in Atbara.