Al Fallah 0–4 Al-Hilal Omdurman II: Result & Stats

Al Fallah

FT

0 – 4

Al-Hilal Omdurman II

5/16/2026

Sudani Premier League · Championship Group - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Al Fallah11%

×Draw25%

Al-Hilal Omdurman II64%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al FallahExpected goals in this matchAl-Hilal Omdurman II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.45

1.53

Al Fallah

0.45

Al-Hilal Omdurman II

1.53

Al-Hilal Omdurman II creates 240% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

0.75

creates per match

2.00

1.06

allows per match

0.14

creates per match

Al Fallah

0.75

Al-Hilal Omdurman II

2.00

allows per match

Al Fallah

1.06

Al-Hilal Omdurman II

0.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Fallah+0.00on par

Al-Hilal Omdurman II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Fallah ↓

Al-Hilal Omdurman II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–121%

0–216%

0–38%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Al Fallah or draw

36%

Al Fallah or Al-Hilal Omdurman II

75%

Draw or Al-Hilal Omdurman II

89%

Winning margin

Al Fallah wins by 2+

2%

Al-Hilal Omdurman II wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Al Fallah 1+ goals

36%

Al Fallah 2+ goals

8%

Al Fallah 3+ goals

1%

Al-Hilal Omdurman II 1+ goals

78%

Al-Hilal Omdurman II 2+ goals

45%

Al-Hilal Omdurman II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Al Fallah (draw refunded)

14%

Al-Hilal Omdurman II (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Fallah at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Al-Hilal Omdurman II away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Fallah attack 0.75 + Al-Hilal Omdurman II defence 0.14 → ÷2 → 0.45

Al-Hilal Omdurman II attack 2.00 + Al Fallah defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Al Fallah scores more

11%

level

25%

Al-Hilal Omdurman II scores more

64%

Al-Hilal Omdurman II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Al-Hilal Omdurman II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff