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Al Fallah vs Al Hilal Kadougli — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Fallah
Al Fallah
FT
0 – 0
Al Hilal Kadougli
Al Hilal Kadougli
10/16/2019Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 6Stade Al-Amal Atbara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Al Fallah46%
×Draw28%
Al Hilal Kadougli26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Fallah
1.31
Al Hilal Kadougli
0.91

Al Fallah creates 44% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 43 away

creates per match

Al Fallah
1.07
Al Hilal Kadougli
0.79

allows per match

Al Fallah
1.02
Al Hilal Kadougli
1.56

finishing

Al Fallah+0.00on par
Al Hilal Kadougli+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Fallah ↓

Al Hilal Kadougli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Fallah or draw
74%
Al Fallah or Al Hilal Kadougli
72%
Draw or Al Hilal Kadougli
54%

Winning margin

Al Fallah wins by 2+
21%
Al Hilal Kadougli wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Fallah 1+ goals
73%
Al Fallah 2+ goals
38%
Al Fallah 3+ goals
14%
Al Hilal Kadougli 1+ goals
60%
Al Hilal Kadougli 2+ goals
23%
Al Hilal Kadougli 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Fallah (draw refunded)
64%
Al Hilal Kadougli (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Fallah at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.02 · 41 matches

Al Hilal Kadougli away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.56 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Fallah attack 1.07 + Al Hilal Kadougli defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Al Hilal Kadougli attack 0.79 + Al Fallah defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Fallah scores more
46%
level
28%
Al Hilal Kadougli scores more
26%

Al Fallah at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Fallah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Fallah vs Al Hilal Kadougli

Al Fallah and Al Hilal Kadougli drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on October 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Al-Amal Atbara in Atbara.