Al Fallah 1–2 Al Ahli Khartoum: Result & Stats

Al Fallah

FT

1 – 2

Al Ahli Khartoum

11/25/2019

Sudani Premier League · Round 11Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Al Fallah41%

×Draw31%

Al Ahli Khartoum29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al FallahExpected goals in this matchAl Ahli Khartoum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.88

Al Fallah

1.11

Al Ahli Khartoum

0.88

Al Fallah creates 26% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 81 away

1.07

creates per match

0.73

1.02

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Al Fallah

1.07

Al Ahli Khartoum

0.73

allows per match

Al Fallah

1.02

Al Ahli Khartoum

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Fallah+0.00on par

Al Ahli Khartoum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Fallah ↓

Al Ahli Khartoum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Al Fallah or draw

71%

Al Fallah or Al Ahli Khartoum

69%

Draw or Al Ahli Khartoum

59%

Winning margin

Al Fallah wins by 2+

17%

Al Ahli Khartoum wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al Fallah 1+ goals

67%

Al Fallah 2+ goals

30%

Al Fallah 3+ goals

10%

Al Ahli Khartoum 1+ goals

59%

Al Ahli Khartoum 2+ goals

22%

Al Ahli Khartoum 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Al Fallah (draw refunded)

59%

Al Ahli Khartoum (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Fallah at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.02 · 41 matches

Al Ahli Khartoum away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Fallah attack 1.07 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Al Ahli Khartoum attack 0.73 + Al Fallah defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Fallah scores more

41%

level

31%

Al Ahli Khartoum scores more

29%

Al Fallah at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Fallah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff