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Al Ahli Khartoum vs Al Fallah — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Ahli Khartoum
Al Ahli Khartoum
FT
1 – 0
Al Fallah
Al Fallah
10/12/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 1Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Al Ahli Khartoum47%
×Draw29%
Al Fallah23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Khartoum
1.25
Al Fallah
0.78

Al Ahli Khartoum creates 60% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 40 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Khartoum
1.14
Al Fallah
0.55

allows per match

Al Ahli Khartoum
1.00
Al Fallah
1.35

finishing

Al Ahli Khartoum+0.00on par
Al Fallah+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Khartoum ↓

Al Fallah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Ahli Khartoum or draw
77%
Al Ahli Khartoum or Al Fallah
71%
Draw or Al Fallah
53%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Khartoum wins by 2+
22%
Al Fallah wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al Ahli Khartoum 1+ goals
71%
Al Ahli Khartoum 2+ goals
36%
Al Ahli Khartoum 3+ goals
13%
Al Fallah 1+ goals
54%
Al Fallah 2+ goals
18%
Al Fallah 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Khartoum (draw refunded)
67%
Al Fallah (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Khartoum at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.00 · 81 matches

Al Fallah away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.35 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Khartoum attack 1.14 + Al Fallah defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Al Fallah attack 0.55 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Ahli Khartoum scores more
47%
level
29%
Al Fallah scores more
23%

Al Ahli Khartoum at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Ahli Khartoum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Ahli Khartoum vs Al Fallah

Al Ahli Khartoum beat Al Fallah 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on October 12, 2022.

The match was played at Khartoum Stadium in Khartoum.