Al Fallah 1–1 Al-Ahli Atbara: Result & Stats

Al Fallah

FT

1 – 1

Al-Ahli Atbara

2/19/2020

Sudani Premier League · Round 21Stade Al-Amal Atbara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Al Fallah64%

×Draw22%

Al-Ahli Atbara15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al FallahExpected goals in this matchAl-Ahli Atbara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

0.76

Al Fallah

1.87

Al-Ahli Atbara

0.76

Al Fallah creates 146% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 18 away

1.07

creates per match

0.50

1.02

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Al Fallah

1.07

Al-Ahli Atbara

0.50

allows per match

Al Fallah

1.02

Al-Ahli Atbara

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Fallah+0.00on par

Al-Ahli Atbara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Fallah ↓

Al-Ahli Atbara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Al Fallah or draw

85%

Al Fallah or Al-Ahli Atbara

78%

Draw or Al-Ahli Atbara

36%

Winning margin

Al Fallah wins by 2+

38%

Al-Ahli Atbara wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Al Fallah 1+ goals

85%

Al Fallah 2+ goals

56%

Al Fallah 3+ goals

29%

Al-Ahli Atbara 1+ goals

53%

Al-Ahli Atbara 2+ goals

18%

Al-Ahli Atbara 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Al Fallah (draw refunded)

81%

Al-Ahli Atbara (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Fallah at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.02 · 41 matches

Al-Ahli Atbara away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Fallah attack 1.07 + Al-Ahli Atbara defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.87

Al-Ahli Atbara attack 0.50 + Al Fallah defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Al Fallah scores more

64%

level

22%

Al-Ahli Atbara scores more

15%

Al Fallah at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Al Fallah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff