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Al Fajr vs Hilal El-Fasher — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Fajr
Al Fajr
FT
1 – 1
Hilal El-Fasher
Hilal El-Fasher
1/21/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Fajr44%
×Draw28%
Hilal El-Fasher28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Fajr
1.31
Hilal El-Fasher
1.00

Al Fajr creates 31% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 16 away

creates per match

Al Fajr
1.75
Hilal El-Fasher
1.25

allows per match

Al Fajr
0.75
Hilal El-Fasher
0.88

finishing

Al Fajr+0.00on par
Hilal El-Fasher+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Fajr ↓

Hilal El-Fasher →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Fajr or draw
72%
Al Fajr or Hilal El-Fasher
72%
Draw or Hilal El-Fasher
56%

Winning margin

Al Fajr wins by 2+
20%
Hilal El-Fasher wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Fajr 1+ goals
73%
Al Fajr 2+ goals
38%
Al Fajr 3+ goals
14%
Hilal El-Fasher 1+ goals
63%
Hilal El-Fasher 2+ goals
26%
Hilal El-Fasher 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Fajr (draw refunded)
61%
Hilal El-Fasher (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Fajr at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Hilal El-Fasher away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Fajr attack 1.75 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.31

Hilal El-Fasher attack 1.25 + Al Fajr defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Fajr scores more
44%
level
28%
Hilal El-Fasher scores more
28%

Al Fajr at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Fajr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Fajr 1–1 Hilal El-Fasher

Al Fajr and Hilal El-Fasher drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on January 21, 2026.