Al Fajr 2–2 Haidob En Nahud: Result & Stats

Al Fajr

FT

2 – 2

Haidob En Nahud

1/12/2026

Sudani Premier League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Fajr48%

×Draw28%

Haidob En Nahud23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al FajrExpected goals in this matchHaidob En Nahud

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.83

Al Fajr

1.33

Haidob En Nahud

0.83

Al Fajr creates 60% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

1.75

creates per match

0.92

0.75

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Al Fajr

1.75

Haidob En Nahud

0.92

allows per match

Al Fajr

0.75

Haidob En Nahud

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Fajr+0.00on par

Haidob En Nahud+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Fajr ↓

Haidob En Nahud →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Al Fajr or draw

77%

Al Fajr or Haidob En Nahud

72%

Draw or Haidob En Nahud

52%

Winning margin

Al Fajr wins by 2+

23%

Haidob En Nahud wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Al Fajr 1+ goals

74%

Al Fajr 2+ goals

38%

Al Fajr 3+ goals

15%

Haidob En Nahud 1+ goals

56%

Haidob En Nahud 2+ goals

20%

Haidob En Nahud 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Al Fajr (draw refunded)

67%

Haidob En Nahud (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Fajr at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Haidob En Nahud away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Fajr attack 1.75 + Haidob En Nahud defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.33

Haidob En Nahud attack 0.92 + Al Fajr defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al Fajr scores more

48%

level

28%

Haidob En Nahud scores more

23%

Al Fajr at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Fajr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff