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Al Fajr vs Al Merreikh El Obeid — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Fajr
Al Fajr
FT
3 – 0
Al Merreikh El Obeid
Al Merreikh El Obeid
1/27/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Fajr58%
×Draw23%
Al Merreikh El Obeid19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Fajr
1.81
Al Merreikh El Obeid
0.91

Al Fajr creates 99% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

creates per match

Al Fajr
1.75
Al Merreikh El Obeid
1.07

allows per match

Al Fajr
0.75
Al Merreikh El Obeid
1.87

finishing

Al Fajr+0.00on par
Al Merreikh El Obeid+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Fajr ↓

Al Merreikh El Obeid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al Fajr or draw
81%
Al Fajr or Al Merreikh El Obeid
77%
Draw or Al Merreikh El Obeid
42%

Winning margin

Al Fajr wins by 2+
34%
Al Merreikh El Obeid wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al Fajr 1+ goals
84%
Al Fajr 2+ goals
54%
Al Fajr 3+ goals
27%
Al Merreikh El Obeid 1+ goals
60%
Al Merreikh El Obeid 2+ goals
23%
Al Merreikh El Obeid 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Fajr (draw refunded)
76%
Al Merreikh El Obeid (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Fajr at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Al Merreikh El Obeid away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Fajr attack 1.75 + Al Merreikh El Obeid defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.81

Al Merreikh El Obeid attack 1.07 + Al Fajr defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Al Fajr scores more
58%
level
23%
Al Merreikh El Obeid scores more
19%

Al Fajr at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Al Fajr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Fajr vs Al Merreikh El Obeid

Al Fajr beat Al Merreikh El Obeid 3-0 in Sudani Premier League on January 27, 2026.