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Al-Faisaly FC vs Foolad FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Faisaly FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Foolad FC
Foolad FCadvanced
2/20/2023AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Round of 16Al Thumama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al-Faisaly FC31%
×Draw37%
Foolad FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Faisaly FC
0.73
Foolad FC
0.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Al-Faisaly FC
0.75
Foolad FC
0.71

allows per match

Al-Faisaly FC
0.75
Foolad FC
0.71

finishing

Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par
Foolad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Under
  • Under82
  • Over18

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Faisaly FC ↓

Foolad FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–023%
0–117%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
77%23%1.5
43%57%2.5
18%82%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Al-Faisaly FC or draw
69%
Al-Faisaly FC or Foolad FC
63%
Draw or Foolad FC
69%

Winning margin

Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+
9%
Foolad FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals
52%
Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals
17%
Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals
4%
Foolad FC 1+ goals
52%
Foolad FC 2+ goals
17%
Foolad FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)
50%
Foolad FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Faisaly FC at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Foolad FC away — creates 0.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.75 + Foolad FC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.73

Foolad FC attack 0.71 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 31%?"

Al-Faisaly FC scores more
31%
level
37%
Foolad FC scores more
31%

Al-Faisaly FC at 31% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 31% does not mean "Al-Faisaly FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Faisaly FC vs Foolad FC

Foolad FC beat Al-Faisaly FC 1-0 in AFC Champions League on February 20, 2023.

The match was played at Al Thumama Stadium in Doha.