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Al-Faisaly FC vs Al Riyadh — Division 1 2018

Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Faisaly FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Riyadh
Al Riyadh
1/27/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 18Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al-Faisaly FC30%
×Draw26%
Al Riyadh44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Faisaly FC
1.15
Al Riyadh
1.46

Al Riyadh creates 27% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Al-Faisaly FC
1.54
Al Riyadh
1.71

allows per match

Al-Faisaly FC
1.21
Al Riyadh
0.76

finishing

Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par
Al Riyadh+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Faisaly FC ↓

Al Riyadh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al-Faisaly FC or draw
56%
Al-Faisaly FC or Al Riyadh
74%
Draw or Al Riyadh
70%

Winning margin

Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+
12%
Al Riyadh wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals
68%
Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals
32%
Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals
11%
Al Riyadh 1+ goals
77%
Al Riyadh 2+ goals
43%
Al Riyadh 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)
40%
Al Riyadh (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Faisaly FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.21 · 68 matches

Al Riyadh away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.54 + Al Riyadh defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.15

Al Riyadh attack 1.71 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al-Faisaly FC scores more
30%
level
26%
Al Riyadh scores more
44%

Al Riyadh at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Riyadh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al-Faisaly FC 0 – 1 Al Riyadh

Al Riyadh beat Al-Faisaly FC 1-0 in Division 1 on January 27, 2023.

The match was played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Al Majma'ah.