Al-Faisaly FC 1–1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC: Result & Stats

Al-Faisaly FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

1/25/2021

Pro League · Round 15Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Al-Faisaly FC27%

×Draw23%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Faisaly FCExpected goals in this matchAl-Hilal Saudi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.79

Al-Faisaly FC

1.24

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

1.79

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 123 away

1.50

creates per match

2.30

1.28

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Al-Faisaly FC

1.50

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.30

allows per match

Al-Faisaly FC

1.28

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Faisaly FC ↓

Al-Hilal Saudi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Al-Faisaly FC or draw

50%

Al-Faisaly FC or Al-Hilal Saudi FC

77%

Draw or Al-Hilal Saudi FC

73%

Winning margin

Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+

11%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals

71%

Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals

35%

Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals

13%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals

83%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals

53%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)

35%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Faisaly FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.28 · 58 matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC away — creates 2.30, concedes 0.98 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.50 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.24

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.30 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al-Faisaly FC scores more

27%

level

23%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more

50%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff