Al-Faisaly FC 1–1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC: Result & Stats

Al-Faisaly FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Husain Al Monassar 90'

Salman Al Faraj 80' (pen)

11/24/2018

Pro League · Round 10Prince Salman Bin Abdulaziz Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Al-Faisaly FC27%

×Draw23%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC50%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-Faisaly FCExpected goals in this matchAl-Hilal Saudi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.79

Al-Faisaly FC

1.24

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

1.79

Al-Hilal Saudi FC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 123 away

1.50

creates per match

2.30

1.28

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Al-Faisaly FC

1.50

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.30

allows per match

Al-Faisaly FC

1.28

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Faisaly FC ↓

Al-Hilal Saudi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Al-Faisaly FC or draw

50%

Al-Faisaly FC or Al-Hilal Saudi FC

77%

Draw or Al-Hilal Saudi FC

73%

Winning margin

Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+

11%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals

71%

Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals

35%

Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals

13%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals

83%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals

53%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)

35%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Faisaly FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.28 · 58 matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC away — creates 2.30, concedes 0.98 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.50 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.24

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.30 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al-Faisaly FC scores more

27%

level

23%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more

50%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Salman Al Faraj

Al-Hilal Saudi FC · M

8.0

Match Events

22'

Ali Al-Boleahi

31'

Yazeed Al Bakr

71'

G. Rivas← Carlos Eduardo

72'

Husain Al Monassar← Abdulaziz Al Bishi

78'

Ante Puljic

80'

Salman Al FarajPenalty

83'

Abdullah Otayf← B. Gomis

86'

J. Akpala← Fahad Al Ansari

89'

Mohammed Al-Burayk

90+4'

Aqeel Al Sahbi← Luisinho

90+2'

Omar Khribin← Salman Al Faraj

90'

Husain Al Monassar↳ D. Calderón

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-FaisalyAl-Hilal

Overview

34%Possession66%

11Total Shots13

3Corners9

13Fouls17

Shots

11Total Shots13

3On Target5

4Off Target5

4Blocked3

7Inside Box11

4Outside Box2

Passing

34%Possession66%

282Total Passes516

200Accurate Passes441

71%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides0