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Al-Faisaly FC vs Al-Fateh — Pro League 2018

Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Faisaly FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al-Fateh
Al-Fateh
4/5/2019Pro LeaguePro League · Round 26Prince Salman Bin Abdulaziz Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Al-Faisaly FC43%
×Draw25%
Al-Fateh32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Faisaly FC
1.56
Al-Fateh
1.31

Al-Faisaly FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 124 away

creates per match

Al-Faisaly FC
1.50
Al-Fateh
1.34

allows per match

Al-Faisaly FC
1.28
Al-Fateh
1.63

finishing

Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par
Al-Fateh+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Faisaly FC ↓

Al-Fateh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al-Faisaly FC or draw
68%
Al-Faisaly FC or Al-Fateh
75%
Draw or Al-Fateh
57%

Winning margin

Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+
22%
Al-Fateh wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals
79%
Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals
46%
Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals
21%
Al-Fateh 1+ goals
73%
Al-Fateh 2+ goals
38%
Al-Fateh 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)
57%
Al-Fateh (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Faisaly FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.28 · 58 matches

Al-Fateh away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.63 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.50 + Al-Fateh defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.56

Al-Fateh attack 1.34 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al-Faisaly FC scores more
43%
level
25%
Al-Fateh scores more
32%

Al-Faisaly FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al-Faisaly FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Al-Faisaly FC 1–1 Al-Fateh

Al-Faisaly FC and Al-Fateh drew 1-1 in Pro League on April 5, 2019.

The match was played at Prince Salman Bin Abdulaziz Sport City Stadium in Al Majma'ah.