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Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taee — Pro League 2018

Al-Ettifaq
Al-Ettifaq
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Taee
Al Taee
2/19/2022Pro LeaguePro League · Round 21Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Al-Ettifaq50%
×Draw25%
Al Taee26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ettifaq
1.64
Al Taee
1.11

Al-Ettifaq creates 48% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 47 away

creates per match

Al-Ettifaq
1.40
Al Taee
0.83

allows per match

Al-Ettifaq
1.39
Al Taee
1.87

finishing

Al-Ettifaq+0.00on par
Al Taee+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ettifaq ↓

Al Taee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al-Ettifaq or draw
74%
Al-Ettifaq or Al Taee
75%
Draw or Al Taee
50%

Winning margin

Al-Ettifaq wins by 2+
26%
Al Taee wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al-Ettifaq 1+ goals
81%
Al-Ettifaq 2+ goals
49%
Al-Ettifaq 3+ goals
23%
Al Taee 1+ goals
67%
Al Taee 2+ goals
30%
Al Taee 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al-Ettifaq (draw refunded)
66%
Al Taee (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ettifaq at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.39 · 126 matches

Al Taee away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.87 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ettifaq attack 1.40 + Al Taee defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.64

Al Taee attack 0.83 + Al-Ettifaq defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al-Ettifaq scores more
50%
level
25%
Al Taee scores more
26%

Al-Ettifaq at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al-Ettifaq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taee

Al Taee beat Al-Ettifaq 1-0 in Pro League on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Dammam.