Al-Ettifaq 2–2 Al-Nassr: Result & Stats

Al-Ettifaq

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Al-Nassr

G. Wijnaldum 80', 16'

C. Ronaldo 67'

Joao Felix 47'

12/30/2025

Pro League · Round 12Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Al-Ettifaq25%

×Draw23%

Al-Nassr51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-EttifaqExpected goals in this matchAl-Nassr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.79

Al-Ettifaq

1.19

Al-Nassr

1.79

Al-Nassr creates 50% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 125 away

1.40

creates per match

2.18

1.40

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Al-Ettifaq

1.40

Al-Nassr

2.18

allows per match

Al-Ettifaq

1.40

Al-Nassr

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Ettifaq+0.00on par

Al-Nassr+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ettifaq ↓

Al-Nassr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Al-Ettifaq or draw

49%

Al-Ettifaq or Al-Nassr

77%

Draw or Al-Nassr

75%

Winning margin

Al-Ettifaq wins by 2+

10%

Al-Nassr wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Al-Ettifaq 1+ goals

70%

Al-Ettifaq 2+ goals

33%

Al-Ettifaq 3+ goals

12%

Al-Nassr 1+ goals

83%

Al-Nassr 2+ goals

53%

Al-Nassr 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Al-Ettifaq (draw refunded)

33%

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ettifaq at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 125 matches

Al-Nassr away — creates 2.18, concedes 0.98 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ettifaq attack 1.40 + Al-Nassr defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.19

Al-Nassr attack 2.18 + Al-Ettifaq defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Al-Ettifaq scores more

25%

level

23%

Al-Nassr scores more

51%

Al-Nassr at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

G. Wijnaldum

Al-Ettifaq · F

8.9

Match Events

2'

Wesley

9'

Saad Fahad Al NasserRed card cancelled

10'

Saad Fahad Al Nasser

16'

G. Wijnaldum↳ F. Al Ghamdi

45+1'

Faris Al Ghamdi

46'

N. Boushal← S. Al Nasser

47'

Joao Felix↳ Angelo

65'

M. Ali← F. Al Ghamdi

67'

C. Ronaldo↳ Joao Felix

73'

R. Al Otaibi← M. Al Olayan

73'

A. Al Khaibari← Wesley

80'

G. Wijnaldum↳ R. Al Otaibi

86'

A. Yahya← S. Al Ghannam

88'

K. Al Ghannam← A. Medran

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Al-EttifaqAl-Nassr

Overview

33%Possession67%

6Total Shots26

0.75Expected Goals (xG)2.08

1Corners16

7Fouls6

Shots

6Total Shots26

4On Target7

2Off Target11

0Blocked8

6Inside Box18

0Outside Box8

Passing

33%Possession67%

286Total Passes544

226Accurate Passes486

79%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls6

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4